David Herron .com

Economists like to suggest that energy is like any other commodity, and that one energy form can be substituted for another. The term is "elasticity". But it shows they are lost in their equations and have no common sense. Obviously oil serves a different function than coal, but they're both "energy". Hence if you convert all forms of energy into BTU's you can equate miles per kilowatt-hour to miles per gallon and pretend they're the same when they're not.

One of the conclusions which can be drawn from deconstructing the 2009 WEO, the IEA's forecast of energy supply and demand out 20 years to 2030, is that the IEA estimates that the average new vehicle sold in Japan in 2030 will have to attain on average 85 miles per gallon. The WEO2009 report contains projections of oil usage based on 4.6 barrels per capita consumption, and assuming population growth at current rates.

High oil prices generally cause economic recessions. The trouble in Dubai is due to decrease in oil consumption due to the current economic recession likely triggered by the high oil prices in 2007-8. What's keeping oil prices in check currently is the recession causing lowered demand. If/as the recession lifts and economic activity returns to "normal" oil demand should rise again. Since it seems oil production cannot return to meeting rising demand, then high oil prices should result, again. Which would cause another recession.